Wandtv.com, NewsCenter17, StormCenter17, Central Illinois News-Lee Davis

Lee Davis

E-mail Lee at lee.davis@wandtv.com

 6-29-10

   Ok, I guess I have something to say today.  I was thinking about my job as I drove to the television station today, and considering where I am and what I'm doing in my life.  As I thought about my career choice, I thought that I should write down some of what was going through my head…and this blog seemed to be the logical choice.

   Broadcasting has been what I've done since after high school.  I worked my way through college on the radio, and although I've tried to break away and do other things I've wound up back in broadcasting.

   But that's not what I was thinking about...that's just a little background.  You have to understand, as a little kid television was a pretty new thing.  It was black & white, and when it first came on, the local station was only on from about 6 until 10:30 at night, and one of the things they broadcast was cartoons. They eventually expanded their schedule and had a cartoon show in the late afternoon, and kids were allowed to be the studio audience.

   You already know where this is going.

   Yep.  It was amazing that first time I walked into the studio. My Cub Scout den got to go, and as we went through the doors which made a "sound lock" keeping noise from the rest of the building out of the studio, the quiet was simply overwhelming.  Huge theater drapes hung all around the room to deaden the sound.  There were two cameras and at that time, the microphone was on a boom overhead. When the host of the show, Captain Bob, came in it was like being in the presence of someone bigger than life. What a thrill. At the age of maybe nine or ten, little did I know that my future had been laid out in front of me.

   So I used old orange crates and the lower part of a chair with rollers and made my own version of a TV camera, with red lights I switched on, a rotary lens thing made from tin cans (no zoom lenses at that time) and my friends and I pretended we were doing our own TV shows right there at my house. I longed to be the guy on the tube.

   So, I drive to work each day looking forward to my job…even when there are the inevitable tasks which raise the dark clouds over the day.  It's a pretty good gig. And to no small credit I was influenced by Jack Kelin and Captain Bob (Thompson) and "weatherman" Bob Kevern of WTVO, and later by "weatherman" Rollie Sponberg at WREX.  I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention Joe Salvi who gave me my first job. He took a kid who knew nothing about how to be a DJ and let me spin records and talk on the radio.

   July 1st marks 46 years in broadcasting for me.  I think I like it.

 


 

 3-5-10

 

Don't you just love the internet? I wrote a blogification yesterday, saved it, and for some reason it blew out everything I'd written since 8-2-08. I'd written some pretty funny stuff, too. Now that I've saved this...I find everything there, but out of order...so time to fix it.

This is rather short, since I repeated everything that got blown out..but now is back.

So I'll just say that daylight saving time is coming...just not this weekend.  It begins at 2 a.m. on Sunday the 14th. Spring ahead one hour.

I'm going to conclude this rant now, just in the event that for some reason this happens to get blown out into the ether of the internet.

Lee

 


 

3-4-10

It was pointed out to me that I hadn't blogged since last July.  Well, let's change that here, and now.

Most of what I do now is directed toward Twitter.  Even with Twitter, I keep fairly quiet unless there's something significant which needs noting, such as severe weather, blizzards, and the beginning of the baseball season...which, incidentally, is today.

Today's the first game of the spring training season.

For those of you who may search for me on Facebook and feel that even though you don't really know me, we just HAVE to be friends, let me apologize to you here, and save you the effort. I use my Facebook account to keep in touch with other TV friends, broadcasters, a couple of very close personal friends, one Lutheran pastor, and one Catholic Priest.  I even declined my daughter's effort to become a Facebook friend.  Snobbish?  Elitist?  No..I just use it to keep in touch with friends.  Someone suggested that I do a "fan" page where those that I don't know can become "fans." Puh-lease. I'm not that egotistical to think anyone actually would join.  And if they did, what does that say about them? They really need something to do...something better to do.

I dedicate today to the only day in either the Gregorian or Julian calendars which is a command. Say it out loud. You'll get it.

/end blogification

LD

 


 

 7-9-09

 Today would have been my mother's 102nd birthday.  She's been gone nearly 20 years now.  As I thiink back, I suppose she would be dumbfounded at the technological advances which have taken place since she died in 1989.

There are so many changes which have taken place, but let's just talk phones.  I recall as a child at home, we had one phone in the house.  We shared the line with a neighbor...no private lines at that time. Twenty years ago, yes I had a cell phone.  But it was a bag phone...remember those? I think it's still in a closet at home. Now, my phone is in my shirt pocket and not only gets phone calls, but surfs the internet, receives texts (LOL CU L8R) is my calculator, address book, a digital camera, and can play music.

My mother loved music.  Nat King Cole was her favorite. She had this huge credenza "entertainment system" with a color television, AM-FM stereo receiver, and a turntable to play records. If I handed her a gizmo about the size of a Bic lighter and told her it has thousands of songs she can listen to...she'd never have believed it.

And what of the internet? It was in existence back 20 years ago, but most of us either didn't know about it, or didn't have home access. Now, we use an internet connection from the StormRunner to upload data in real-time, communicate with the storm center, and even send live video back from where the storms are.

Back in "the day," the computerization had begun...I had a Commodore 64.  It had 64K of memory. Now we have laptops with 250 gigabyte hard drives which are small enough to fit in a woman's purse.  Not that my wife would carry hers in her purse.  I'm the techno-geek in the family.

Just think how far technology has moved us in weather.  We now can get radar data instantly from anywhere in the country. Same goes for any current weather information such as temperature, rainfall, rain rate, wind, etc.  We can get satellite pictures about every 30 minutes.

I don't think I'll be digging out the Commodore 64 or my old Vic 20 anytime in the near future.

Lee


 6-19-09

Whew!  As I write this, we've just finished dealing with a round of severe weather.  Numberous severe thunderstorm warnings, multiple tornado warnings including reports of a tornado sighted by emergency management trained spotters in Vermilion county.  We were on the air off & on for a couple of hours.

This week, storms rolled through extremely early in the morning.  My NOAA weather radio alerted at about 5:50 a.m.  We did continuous coverage of those storms, too.

I just wanted to acknowledge the work done by my co-workers.  Laine Sylvester came in at 3 a.m. Friday to do the morning show, as Greg Trumbold had the day off.  She took a little lunch break, but stayed here working in the background until 8 p.m.  JC Fultz had the day off today, too. He was in St. Louis and came hot-footing it back to be in studio with me for our wall-to-wall coverage.

Greg was a real trooper the other morning & is here late in the day when he's needed.  Jeff Quick is the same way.

I'm quite fortunate to have a strong team, each of whom is dedicated to presenting the best and most up to date information. Great people.

Lee 


 

6-5-09

The first week of June is almost gone.  The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially began on the first, and we already had a tropical depression which fizzled.  Just because the season runs June 1 - November 30th doesn't mean the Atlantic storms are limited to that timeframe.

Same goes for "tornado season" in central Illinois.  April, May & June generally are the most active times in this part of the country but statistically we have had (and can have) tornadoes in any month of the year.  Fortunately, we've had kind of a quiet spring.  That's good for all of us, although we'd sure like to get the StormRunner out & do research and report on some severe weather.  But I think we'd all be happy if we didn't have any tornado damage in this part of the state.

Neveretheless, the StormRunner continues to be out and around central Illinois so you can see the conditions (sometimes just to reassure you that your travels will be in nice weather) in the StormCenter17 viewing area.

Looks like a great weekend...at least through early Sunday afternoon.  Follow me on Twitter...StormCenterLee.

For those who want to "friend" me on Facebook, sorry.  I keep my friends to others in the business and a few select friends.  Even said no to my daughter.

Enjoy your weekend.  There's lots to do in central Illiinois.

Lee


 5-20-09

Yeah, well...we got some pretty interesting severe weather last Friday.  Had an opportunity to utilize video from the O'Brien Autopark of Urbana StormRunner on the air, and got some good data from the truck, too.

During the event, a lot of people sent in e-mails and pictures.  I have to say thanks to each and every one of you.  Those were important for us to get a look at even though we only had time to use a few on the air.

Just to give you a behind the scenes insight, while an event such as that is going on we're constantly checking numerous data sources, other radar displays we don't show on the air, e-mail, data from the National Weather Service, and our other live cameras.  About every five minutes, we make a mental evaluation...does this storm warrant staying on the air?  Clearly, this one did. We stayed with it until the warnings were done.

That supercell exhibited real good rotation and we had numerous reports of funnels from trained spotters. There was 1 3/4" hail, and winds in excess of 70 mph as it moved across the state dropping extremely heavy rainfall...which we didn't need.

During that time a bunch of folks decided to follow me on Twitter.  When I got a break, I updated them with what was going on.  That's especially good if you can't get to a TV and get your Twitter updates sent to your cell phone.  If you don't understand what Twitter is about, scroll down & see my blogpost from 4/23.  If you do and you want to get my updates, just follow StormCenterLee.

Keep on tweetin'!

Lee


 5-13-09

Briefly:  At 1:30 pm, heaviest rain from round 1 of storms has moved east of our area, with isolated storms firing west and south. Round two is expected mid to late afternoon.  Greatest threat is hail, strong winds, and chance for an isolated tornado

Round three is our main concern today.  That should be in the evening. Warmer air has pushed north, and to our west a cold front will move through kicking off a line of strong to severe thunderstorms  Again, we'll be dealing with the likelihood of large hail, possible winds to 50 mph or excess, and a chance for tornadoes. After frontal passage, weather will improve over night.

If you "speak" Twitter, you can follow me at StormCenterLee.  If you don't understand about Twitter, see my posts below.  You can set up your Twitter account so new messages go directly to your cell phone as text messages.

StormRunner is gassed up again and will roll later this afternoon.

Lee


 5-11-09

   I've been asking folks who follow my Twitter account to drop me an e-mail and let me know if they're getting my "Tweets" on a mobile wireless device such as a cell phone.  I'd like to know just how many are getting the info instantly, or if they're just getting e-mails which may not be seen until later in the day.

   Rest assured, if you drop an e-mail I'm not going to spam you or turn over your e-mail address to some company that wants to sell you something.  It's just for my own personal enlightenment so we can better utilize this medium.

   Twitter is going to prove an excellent communication tool during severe weather.  We anticipate some strong thunderstorms moving across this area on Wednesday and we'll keep you up to date through Twitter and on-air.  If you don't have a Twitter account, go to the WAND-TV home page, scroll down and you'll see a link on the right.

   When I first signed up for Twitter, I really didn't see how it would be of any value.  Silly me.  What a great tool.  Try it, and follow me....StormCenterLee.

   Be safe!

   Lee

  


 

 5-1-09

   MAYDAY! MAYDAY!  Yep, it's May first.  In olden times, the kids would celebrate by dancing around the May pole.  I suppose you could get a full explanation of the whole May pole thing by Googling it.  However, today would be a kinda funky day for that with the scattered showers.

   Yeah, pretty rainy.  So, let's take a look at the rain stats.  Average rainfall for the month is 3.95" while the rain total for April 2009 was a whopping 8.00 inches. That's 4.05" ahead for the month. On May 1st, the average year-to-date liquid precip (rain + any snow melt and ice) is 11.60" while our actual year-to-date is 15.39 inches, which is 3.79" ahead for the year.

   I've spoken about this on the air, but it bears repeating.  Seems like so many Memorial Day weekends, we have clouds, rain, and cool temperatures.  I've tracked this over the course of the last 15 years and countless times we've had a frontal boundary stall and go stationary right around central Illinois.  As disturbances track along that stalled out front, they trigger the rain, to the dismay of all of us wanting to get the summer started.

   Looks like this weekend is going to act a lot like that.  I know the farmers are wanting to get into the fields and get the crops planted, but it's too wet.  Lawns are growing great, but it's difficult to cut when they're so wet...not to mention having to mow in the rain.

   As it stands right now, there's little or no threat of severe weather over the weekend.  If you'd like to get severe weather watches & warnings sent to your e-mail or cell phone, just subscribe to Twitter and "follow" me...StormCenterLee.  A full discussion of how that works is below.  It's all free and I'd like to have you follow.  In addition to the watches/warnings, I occasionally put out brief weather messages to keep you updated.

Have a good weekend!

Lee


 4-24-09

Where did Friday's thunderstorm cell come from?  Why wasn't it in the forecast?

First, things change. None of the forecast models picked up on the feature which created the environment conducive to thunderstorm production.  Remember, your forecasters don't control the weather, we forecast it.  Things can change in the atmosphere which sometimes don't get picked up in the forecast models.

Here's what happened:  We've had increasing southerly breezes, funneling a lot of gulf moisture into the mid-Mississippi valley. With some sunshine this morning, warming the air, there was a feature aloft which helped enhance the rising of the air.

This feature wasn't on any of the forecast models.  Winds aloft, up at about 35,000 feet are flowing northeasterly right now. There was a small area where the wind speed increased.  As it moved faster, it created kind of a vacuum behind it and air from the lower levels had to flow upward to replace it.  That upwardly mobile air which holds significant gulf moisture rose until that moisture condensed, producing raindrops. As the process continued, this thunderstorm was born. It moved quite slowly across central Illinois, being guided by the winds aloft, dropping moderate rainfall before finally raining itself out in Piatt county.

We had no reports of any hail or wind damage.  As the storm moved across this part of the state, I managed to do frequent updates on my Twitter account.  If you'd like to get those, and possibly watches & warnings, see my blog entry below, from yesterday.

Enjoy your weekend!

Lee


 4-23-09

   Twitter, tweets, twits.  What's it all about? If you speak Twitter, you can skip down this post a few paragraphs.  

   Twitter is a web site where you subscribe at no charge, find someone whose posts you'd like to follow, and then click to "follow" and have their posts sent to your e-mail or wireless device each time they update their posts.  What possible worldly good could this be?

   Well, I didn't see the value either until I learned about what my friend Jason Kelly at a TV station in Panama City, Florida, is doing and have picked up on that.  I'm now trying it, as well.

   I've been able to have any severe weather watches and warnings in our area sent to my Twitter account as a "tweet" (that's their term for a post.)  If you subscribe and follow my account, when there's a severe watch or warning received, it tweets to my Twitter account, and will be forwarded to you post haste.  Cool, huh?  Additionally, I'll probably be tweeting something to you from time to time.

   Right up front, this is an experiment on my part. StormCenter 17 is NOT behind this, although I suspect that if it's successful it may be picked up and used.  But you'll have been in on the ground floor.  Since setting this up, there have been no watches or warnings for this area and I haven't been able to see it in action.  So here's the warning:  This is experimental.  You may follow my Twitter account for free.  Since it's free, value it as highly as you've paid.  Do not rely on my Twitter as your sole source of information.  Watch StormCenter 17 for full notice.  Utilize a NOAA all hazards weather radio.  Be aware of changing conditions around you (situational awareness.)  Maintain and enact your own personal safety plan in the event of severe weather.  I hope that satisfies my lawyer...and he's a good one...His motto is: "Reasonable doubt, for a reasonable fee...we'll keep fighting this until you run out of money."

All that said, here's what you do:

Go to twitter.com and create your own account and set your delivery preferences.

  1. Go to twitter.com and create your own account and set your delivery preferences.
  2. Search for StormCenterLee
  3. When you find me, click "follow."

Let's see how this goes.  It works extremely well for my buddy Jason, and I have no reason to believe it won't work just as well here.

Thanks for playing at home...

Lee 


3-2-09

Well, I was gone on vacation for a week, then fell behind.  I wish I didn't have to write this blog today...or, more accurately, I wish it didn't have this content.

Chicago radio..indeed, broadcasting in general, lost three important voices last week.  I'm deeply saddened with the passing of each, just as I was at the passing of St. Louis' Jack Buck.

Norm Van Leer and Johnny "Red" Kerr served the Chicago Bulls and Chicago sports fans for many years and will be missed.  As if that weren't enough, following their deaths the end of the week, we lost Paul Harvey. 

These losses remind me of 1998, when we lost Harry Caray and six months later Jack Brickhouse. Jack's "out-takes" are legend in the broadcasting business...saying things on tape that could never have made it to air.  I'm fortunate to have audio cassettes somewhere in my house of a bunch of his epithets.

I won't go into the details surrounding the deaths this last week.  If you have interest, I'm sure you can find what you'd like to know by doing a search on the internet.  I just felt like I wanted to blog a tribute to these three fine broadcasters.  I'm so glad that the Bulls organization was able to do a tribute to "Red" Kerr at half time of a game just two weeks before he died.  Red was more integral to the team than most ever really realized.

And as for Mr. Harvey...what can I say about that inimitable style?  I grew up listening to him and his daily commentary.  When I worked in radio, I had to record, then play back his 15 minute segment each day in the middle of my shift...at noon time.  There I sat, taking a break and usually eating lunch while listening to what he said.

What you probably didn't know was that about 8 minutes into that 15 minute comment, he'd say, "Page THREE."  That cued local stations to take him off the air and play a one-minute local commercial. 

RIP, gentlemen.  We are better for your sharing of your lives and talent with us.  We are poorer for having lost you.

And now you know the rest of the story.

Lee


 2-6-09

HEY!  It's HERE! Well...it's not really spring, but the winter weather break has finally arrived.

Actually, this hasn't been a truly "bad" winter.  We've had some snow, but most places haven't had that HUGE dump of a foot of snow.  Apologies to the folks in far southeastern central Illinois, where Olney did receive heavy snowfall.  Also, it's not been extremely cold.  While we have had below zero temperatures, there hasn't been a long run of extreme cold.

Nope, it's just been a rotten winter.  I think in part, that's because we haven't had the little January thaw we look forward to.

So it's only right that we get a little moderation in the temperatures, and melt down the snow piles.  And that's what we have for the next week or so.  Even morning low temperatures are forecast to stay above freezing.  Sweet.

The problem, as I see it, is the confusion that the little perennials will have, poking their little noses (stamens?) out of the ground sniffing around and thinking, "Spring already?  I just got to sleep." Also, once the ground starts to dry out at the surface and isn't muddy any longer, you just KNOW there's that neighbor who will want to mow the lawn.

So enjoy the break, as we know that winter's not over yet...but it's a nice respite from snow, ice, and cold.

Let the car washing begin!

Lee


 1-31-09

What a week, huh? A couple of rounds of snow, cold, and a new governor.  Sheesh.

Without digging too deeply into politics on a blog that, while it's mine to do and say as I please, has a target audience of folks who are primarily weather oriented, I'll just say I think a majority of folks...especially in central Illinois...are glad to see Blago's arrogance kicked to the curb.  While it remains to be seen what he'll do, I think Governor Quinn is going to be a welcome change.

Let's talk severe weather.  Yup.  Just around the corner. If you have any interest in learning about severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, there's going to be a free storm spotter class sponsored by the Macon County Emergency Management Agency and conducted by staff from the National Weather Service office at Lincoln, on Saturday March 7, 9 a.m., at Richland Community College.  Open to spotters, potential spotters, or just folks who are interested and want to learn more about storms.

Recently, I was asked by someone who has received a modicum of weather education, but is not a meteorologist, if it would be beneficial to attend.  My response was that I've been studying the weather for nearly 50 years, have been a meteorologist for more than 10 years, and took my first spotter training more than 20 years ago.  I go to spotter training every time I get a chance.  I always come away with either something new that I've learned, or I get reminded of something I've forgotten.

How's the battery in your All Hazards-NOAA Weather Radio?  What?  No weather radio?  Do we have a deal for you!  Get ready for the weather radio sales promotion coming soon to a location near you.  Watch News Center 17 for details.

And finally...there was a story which we aired about the Oscars being made in Illinois.  Sean Streaty joked that he has a couple of Oscars...but they're chocolate...ha ha.  I commented that I have an Oscar...a Dachshund...who's a "low-rider" and has trouble getting through the snow.  I don't think Sean really has those candy Oscars...but I do have two, count 'em...TWO Dachshunds, in case you didn't know.  Sophie's the female and Oscar's the male.  They're brother & sister, and just turned 6.  For real.

I think since the sun's out, I'll go walk the dogs.

Lee


 1-20-09

Well, that didn't take long.  I said I'd blog every week whether I had something to say or not.  Last week, I didn't have much to say...and didn't. 

I'll say this...when those morning low temperatures got down to around 20 below zero, the wife really appreciated her Christmas present.  Now, most guys get the frilly-foofy stuff for mama, but not me.  And she's said, "No more perfumes!" so many years in a row, that I don't even know the names of the popular fragrances. I recall getting her the ever popular (with me) White Shoulders, and Giorgio, but haven't bought her anything like that in a while.

She likes the Nora Roberts books, but tends to buy them for herself leaving me without any inspiration.  At least until this year.  Y'see, the Mrs. is a hospital nurse and leaves for work about 6 in the morning on workdays.  So I finally came up with something which I thought would be good for her.

When we opened our presents, I made her save that big box for last.  She opened it only to find another box wrapped inside it.  And when she opened that box, here's another one just like it but smaller.  Opening that one, here's yet another. Finally, when she got that one open, there's something small, all wrapped up in festive paper. 

Tearing it open, she couldn't figure out what this thing is.  Then, she separated the two items and realized they're car key tag fobs...with only one button. That button's sole purpose for living is to start my wife's Trail Blazer.

It wasn't like getting her somethiing fancy-schmanzy, but on cold mornings, walking out to a warm truck...and after work at 7 p.m. going to a truck that's toasty & ready to go home it's going to be something good.

And those cold mornings last week?  She was off.  I drove the warmed up truck to work.

I'll save the story of the leaf blower I bought her for mothers' day one year for another time.

Lee


 1-9-09

As we end the first week of the new year, it turns out that I do have something to say.

Gonna be cold next week.  That's the fact, Jack.  We could see that coming as far back as last weekend.  So why is it that we've slowly, painfully been revising downward the temperatures for the middle of week?

Well, we look at forecast models. One of the main ones we use goes out 240 hours, or 10 days.  When it started painting a picture of high temperatures on Wednesday in the teens and a low below zero, that was a shock.  So...was that model right or wrong...there's the question.  Could it be out to lunch?

Well, the way we do this is to look at a model's run-to-run consistency.  This model comes out every 12 hours.  Yes, it was staying fairly consistent on a run-to-run basis.  That enhances our confidence...yet, we need to continue to be skeptical.

So, we start comparing to other forecast models as they become available.  Getting closer & closer in time to the forecast period (mid-week) the models begin to forecast for that time.  And in this case, there's agreement between/among models, and consistency from run-to-run.

Consistency and agreement work to build confidence in the models and allow us to write a forecast.

It's flat out gonna be cold.  And my son picked December to start a new job as general manager of a food service establishment...in Chicago.  He's gonna freeze during his hour riding the "L" to get to the store.  I grew up in Rockford and graduated from NIU at DeKalb, where I had to walk to class in 40 below zero wind chills, 4 feet of snow, 4 miles uphill, each way. My son's going to get a taste of what that was like.

And pitchers and catchers report to spring training in a little over a month!

Lee


 12-29-08

When I started blogging, I told you that I'd only write if I had something worthwhile to say.  Well, my new year's resolution for 2009 is to write at least once a week.  Sometimes, it might be more meaningful than other times.

In a letter to the editor of Springfield's "State Journal-Register," a gentleman from Cantrall, Illinois, comments: "Just wondering: Am I the only one that finds the weather warning systems lacking...(they) generally show the affected area by county. I would guess that there are some who don't know their county name, just their city."  He goes on to recommend, "With the computer technology present, it doesn't seem that it would be such a hard task to provide a better means of identification."

This fellow appears to be suggesting that we add to the crawl system each and every town in the affected area.  Not a bad idea, but as a matter of practicality it becomes unwieldy.  Further, there are those who have a different attitude, as noted in the following e-mail I received.

"I don't understand why you have to have so many of the same warnings on our screen at one time.  It use to be just a simple W in the right hand corner, now we have to have each county that has a warning in the lower left hand corner.  Enough already, they get in the way of our picture and they are quite a distraction on our 65 inch tv.  So please, back off with all the picture interference, we all understand about ice storms and the such, without a weather crew standing on it's head on every warning.  You guys do a great job, but please give us a break on the signage."

On behalf of the guys and gal of the "weather crew," thanks for the compliment...but I have yet to see any of us stand on our head...especially the one who wears dresses.

So, one person wants more information, this one wants less.  Wasn't it Abraham Lincoln who said, "You can please some of the people all of the time, all of the people some of the time, but you can't please all of the people all of the time,"?

I don't recall who said, "You can lead a horse to water, but if you can get him to lie down & do the backstroke, you can sell tickets to that one."

When we're live, talking about warnings, we normally will verbally point out what towns are in or near the warning area.  But to have that on the crawl is beyond the current level of the technology without an exorbitant cost.  We also talk about the counties included in watches and warnings, and if you don't know what county you're in you should ask someone.  I've been a traveler in an unfamiliar area and had to find out what county I was in.  In the case of a visit to Mississippi State University, I can't spell OR pronounce most of the counties in that area.

So, my challenge for the new year is to blog at least once a week. I challenge you to find out where you live.  If you already know, then you can take the year off.  If you don't, maybe you could ask a 6th grader.

Happy New Year...

Lee


 12-5-08

Yes, it's cold.  Yes, we've already had more snow than I want.  But the snow makes many people happy, so I guess since I live where it gets cold this time of year I'd better keep my mouth shut.  I used to do some cross country skiing and even ice skating but it's been a long time since I did either.

If you look waaaay back in my blogs, you'll see that at one point I said something about being very excited about some changes we had coming.  I could bearly contain myself from talking about the O'Brien Auto Park-Urbana Stormrunner.  It's our weather truck, built on a 2008 Toyota 4Runner, with lots of electronics inside. When storms hit, we'll be able to do research and not only piinpoint the storms, but also show streaming video of exactly what's going on.

This weeknd, the StormRunner will be in the Springfield Christmas parade Saturday morning, and the Champaign parade at 5:30 p.m.  Get a picture of it, send it in & you're registered to win in the random drawing for a StormCenter 17 golf umbrella  JC Fultz handles the drawing on Thursdays and announces the winner during WAND News at 6.

E-mail your pic as an attachment to:  james.fultz@wandtv.com

Stay warm!

Lee


 11-11-08

It's Veterans' Day.  A personal thanks to all who currently serve and those who previously served our country.  Geezers like me recall when this was called Armistice Day.  True history buffs may have to correct me on this...I'm a meteorologist not a historian.  As I recall, the armistice which brought The Great War, World War I, to an end, took place at the eleventh hour, of the eleventh day, of the eleventh month. Therefore, here we are observing not only the end of The Great War, but a day dedicated to all veterans. 

I would be remiss if I neglected to point out that yesterday, November 10th, was the anniversary of the United States Marine Corps.  To all Mariines I say, "Semper Fi!"

Today, 11/11, is also the birthday of a couple of personal friends so I'll say happy birthday.

Now then, if you have been reading this sporadic musing, you'll remember waaaay back last summer when I said we had something cool coming but I couldn't say anything about it. It's the O'Brien Auto Park of Urbana Stormrunner!!  That baby is cool!  It's a brand new Toyota 4Runner, loaded down with weather equipment.  We have our own Weatherbug (Live Weather Net) site, can feed video live, a laptop, safety lights, and a TV so we can watch what's being aired during severe weather.  There's more to come, but this is the "roll out."  If you see one of us out & about, feel free to stop us & ask about the Stormrunner.

A project like this doesn't just happen overnight. Nearly 3 years ago, I presented the idea to our management and over the last couple of years have been revising requested equipment lists. 

Also, if it's not quite live yet, there soon will be a page on the WAND website which will give you a good look at this very important storm reporting tool.  We're very pleased to have this technology available to us so we can bring the most up to date, and accurate information to you, the weather viewer.  

Hurry up, spring!  I'm ready for summer!

Lee 


 11-03-08

Don't pay the ransom, I escaped!!!  Yeah, it's been a while. Since last I blogged, I attended the annual meeting of the National Weather Association, a conference I have to attend as professional education, to maintain my seal of approval.  Always good to see colleagues from around the country, and to hear the presentations of case studies and how the science applies.  The keynote speaker was Tom Skilling of WGN-TV in Chicago, and his presentation was riveting.

Now then, a topic which comes up this time of year...sunset.  We usually get cell calls, whispering, "What time is sunset?"  Gotta be deer hunters.  Well..it depends on where you are.  Our statistics we show for sunrise/sunset are based on Decatur, which is centered east-west in our viewing area.  The sun actually sets a little earlier in Danville, and later in Jacksonville.

Nevertheless, the sun's setting before 5 p.m. now and will set earlier, and earlier until the winter solstice.  That's the time the vertical rays of the sun make their farthest southerly progress...at 23 1/2 degrees south latitude...the Tropic of Capricorn. Then, the sun starts climbing in the sky until the summer solstice next June.

This year's winter solstice occurs December 21, at precisely 6:04 a.m. central standard time.  That's the official beginning of winter. 

It's on its way & we can't stop it.  I'm bummed.  Gimme 85 & sunny.

Warm up the snowblower.

Lee


 10-8-08

**Some minor changes in paragraph 4....10/10.)

Just a few points to relate.  Yes, I realize (see the post below) I cursed the Cubs.  It's my fault.  I admit it.

Secondly:  Huge congratulations to Meteorologist/Main Weather Anchor J.C. Fultz on being awarded the National Weather Association seal of approval.  I knew he'd get it, but he was worried, nonetheless.  He got it on the first try.  It took me 2 tries to get the NWA seal (...coughs...but I did get the AMS seal on the first submission.)  The process goes like this:

First, you must sit for a written examination to test your meteorological, climatological, and general science knowledge. If you pass that, you must then submit videotapes of 3 consecutive TV appearances (weathercasts) which are reviewed by a panel of 5 NWA members.  Congrats, J.C.  He's a young man who's going places....just don't go too soon.  We like having you here.

Finally...Yes, I was off the air for a week.  Since I've had so many inquiries, I thought it might be okay to mention the Ireland trip here.  You may recall seeing commercials with me suggesting that you join me for a trip of a lifetime to my ancestral homeland, Ireland.  Superlatives fall short in description of the trip.  It was just incredible.

We were able to get to within about a mile of my wife's family's ancestral home...but the motorcoach was too tall to get under a bridge, so we had to turn back.  The driver suggested we take a little time & get out and just walk and get the feel for the area, which we did.  From there, we motored northeast to Killkenny, which is my family's homeland.  There was a church there which dates back to 1800, and my great-great-great grandparents (James Hanrahan, who was married to Mary Murphy) would have seen that same church which I stood looking at in awe last Friday morning.  My great-grandfather, Thomas Hanrahan was born in Kilkenney in 1818. We found the graveyard, and while the headstones were very weathered, we did find two which seemed to have the name "Hanrahan" engraved on them.  I think it's quite likely that we discovered my great-great grandfather's grave. Hanrahan was my mother's maiden name.  At any rate, it was pretty cool being in our ancestral home areas.

Just as a final note, I have to give an international shout-out to our driver/tour guide, Dave Walden.  He was a weath of information and knowledge and became a friend during the week our tour group was with him.  We all had such a great time and bonded as a group.

Simply phenomenal.

Begorrah!

Lee  


 9-25-08

Okay, I've watched this Cubs-Cardinals rivaly JC & Jeff have with great interest.  I'm not quite as outspoken as either of those, or as Sean Streaty, for that matter.  But since I was a kid growing up in Rockford, I've been a Cubs fan.  Before that, I was a Milwaukee Braves fan, siince that was my first major league baseball game...at the OLD county stadium.

But the Cubs it is.  Through all the years, of bad & worse...even a Cubs fan enjoying the season of 1969 before the Mets ran away with it.  So it is, that I've been holding my breath since the Cubs went into first place in the National League Central division on May 11th.  They've been tied since then, but never out of first place.  And now, it's pins & needles I'm sitting on, hoping against hope.  Is it any wonder I've been eyeing the Mylanta at the drug store?

So, since my kids were raised in a Cubs household, is there any question about their baseball allegiance?  In fact, my son's wife was a Cards fan...but has seen the light.  Ryan got bleacher tickets for the Cubs-Brewers game on 9/18, and asked me if I'd like to go.  A, nd so...there we were sitting in bright sunshine at 12:20 in the afternoon watchiing the Brew-Crew take batting practice.  In the sun all afternoon.  And with an adult beverage along with my overpriced hot dog (which Ryan bought) I found myself with my eyelids about half staff as we suffered through an uneventful game.  By 3:30, and into the 8th inning, trailing 6-2, I was ready to call it quits and head across to the Cubby Bear and have a cool, amber, frothy beverage and watch the end of the game on TV.  But we stayed.

Good that we did.  With two out in the bottom of the ninth, and nobody on, the Cubs managed to come back & tie the game...taking it into 12 innings before winning 7-6.

My son entered the "lottery" drawing for the right to buy playoff tickets before the general crowd, and this week was informed he'd be able to do just that.  I will be unavailable to go along this time...and I'm sure his Mrs. will be happy to go.

I hate to set the "Davis curse" on the northsiders...but I'll dream on anyway.  What IF this is THE YEAR?  What if my son should happen to win the right to buy World Series tickets?  I think 2 is all you can buy.  I'm sure his lovely bride would be thrilled to attend a World Series game.  But, in the scope of things, there are second graders who really need her to be there and continue teaching them their arithmatic and spelling.  Besides...with the age difference, she has a better chance of seeing a world series again than I do.

My thinking is, the ticket will probably easily go for $150 each.  So, my fine young son could take his bride to the World Series and spend $300 for tickets, probably $50 for parking, and easily another fifty for food, beverages, and sundry souvenirs.  That's four lar, ge.

OR, he could take dad....and pay nothing.  Hmmm...simple math.  $400 out or free ride courtesy of dad.

If y'all happen to know my son, why don't you explain that particular theory of economics to him?

GO CUBBIES!  This is NEXT year!

Lee


9-11-08

Cool stuff, this internet, huh? I received a note from someone out of state, telling me how interesting my tales of broadcasting (see below) were.  Yep..I go back a long way.  Radio was steam powered back then & fire had just been invented.

Literally, we played all records then.  Mostly 45 rpm records, but also "albums" which were 33's, and YES, we even had some 78's.  Technology has come a long way in 44 years.  I was thrilled when I started at the first station which had all its music on tape cartridges and we didn't have to "cue" a record.  That was heaven.  But even better when the last radio station I worked for transitioned to all the music on computer. Same for all the commercials...no more stacks of cartridges. 

Here's a little insight into the "cart" days of commercials. We'd have a program log showing what commercials to play, what time to play them, and in what order.  So you'd start pulling the carts from the beginning of the hour, and stack them upside down. When you were done, you'd take the stack & turn it over...and they're ready.  The computer has them all in proper order now.

In the almost 15 years I've been here, there have been HUGE advances in technology in the weather department.  The graphics computer we used when I started here was pretty primitive by comparison to what we have now. Back then, to show a satellite loop (movie) we had to actually find two four-panel images in the computer, cut each & paste it over a base map, then add a banner, and save the final product at a specific location.  As I recall, the first of the satellite frames was 210 and the second one was 211.  As you might have guessed, today's machine is completely automatic. What used to take about 15 minutes is all done by the machiine now.

You hear us talk about "Live Doppler 4X."  It's a computer which has data from any 4 radar sites around the country.  I'm guessing we'll see a lot of sweeps out of the Texas gulf coast the next couple of days, as Hurricane Ike makes landfall.  It's just amazing.  We're getting these radar displays which come through the internet with a delay of only 2-3 seconds most of the time.

Ah, the internet.  If you weren't aware, NewsCenter17 also streams about the first 15 minutes of our noon newscast live.  Just go to the home page and click the bar at the top which says we stream the news live.  Noon central time.  We stream until after the noon weather...so if you want to see what I have to say about central Illinois' weather all you have to do is click.  If you miss it, you can get a forecast "on demand" at the top of the weather page...it's the "player" at the right.  Doesn't matter if you're in Venezuela, California, Wisconsin, or Key West, Florida...you can see it "on demand."

Cool stuff, huh?

Lee


 9-9-08

Did you read what JC & Greg blogged about "burnout" on the job?  You'll probably want to do that. I have to confess that I seldom suffer from job burnout.  Sure, there are times when I'm real glad to get away...but that's because I have a much looked forward to vacation.  You see, I don't take days unless I have something special planned. I even hate taking sick days. If I take a sick day it's because I'm so miserable that I couldn't make it to work.

Although there are some tasks which are a part of my job that I don't care for, I have to say that I really love doing what I do.  I look forward to being at work and would rather be here than not. I think that out of the nearly 15 years I've worked here, you could probably count on one hand the number of times I would rather have been somewhere else.  Two of those were recently, and because it was a great day and there was no challenge to the forecast.

You see, while this job does provide an income to put salami in the refrigerator, to me it's not just a job.  It's my life.  From the time I was a little kid, I knew I wanted to be in broadcasting.  As a Cub Scout project, I took a wooden orange crate, some cans, a broomstick and some other stuff, and built a mock-up of a TV camera, and the neighborhood kids & I stood in front of it and did our own "tv show."  I must have been nine.

After graduating from high school, I started working for a local radio station part-time to get into the business and provide some income through college.  Although there were a couple of instances where I worked in data processing centers during college, since then I've been almost all broadcasting.  I had four jobs out of the business, but have worked for 14 radio stations and 3 television stations.  I guess you'd call me a "career broadcaster."  Sure, there have been jobs that I still shudder when I think of them.  But by and large, I've loved being in broadcasting. And I enjoy coming in and doing my daily tv stuff.

Add to that the fact that I was the ultimate weather geek as a kid.  I still have a paperback book on weather which I bought at Chicago's Museum of Science and Industry...probably about 1956.  Plus, I'm a licensed private pilot and knowledge of the atmosphere just fits right in.  It's only natural that broadcasting and weather should meld together for me.

July first, I noted 44 years in broadcasting. I still have the ORIGINAL license issued to me to operate a radio station.  The guy who gave me my first job and showed me how to work the controls saw more than just some kid who knew something about electronics.  He saw a kid who'd work free for the experience.  Thanks to Joe Salvi.

So, I suppose I'll continue to stay involved in broadcasting in one way or another until I retire.  Incidentally, target date is July 29, 2016.  Special birthday. After that, who knows? Maybe I'll have time to do a real launch of an internet video podcast site. A friend and I tried to pull that off a couple of years ago, but a full time job & real life just got in the way.

So burnout?  Not for me....just the fire.  I have a long way to go before I burn out.

Hey...I gotta go do TV.

Keep smilin'

Lee 

 

9-4-08


 

 

 

I wrote a great blog entry on Monday.  I wished everyone a happy Labor Day and carried on at great length about hurricane Gustav.  Then, the Mrs. bellowed that breakfast was on. After stuffing (a quite good) breakfast in my face, I returned, finished my blog entry, and hit "save" to upload it.  The system logged me out for being on too long.  So...it was gone.  Moral?  Save your work.

As I write this, the remnants of Gustav are dropping some pretty heavy rain across the area.  Lined up like a string of pearls in the Atlantic are Hannah, Ike, and Josephine. Statistically, the Atlantic tropical cyclone season peaks on September 15th.  Giddyup.

The tropical cyclone is my favorite area of study.  Now, I won't use the word "expert" by any stretch of the imagination.  However, I have more than a smattering of ignorance, having studied hurricanes in depth. For the past 9 years, I've been an invited delegate to an annual weather conference put on by the government of the Bahamas. You may have seen my reports via satellite from the conference. I've learned a lot, contributed a little, and have gotten to know some pretty cool folks. I now count as friends, two former directors of the National Hurricane Center, Max Mayfield, and Dr. Bob Sheets.  A couple of years ago, I was one of 5 people who were asked to speak at a "roast" of Bob.

I've also become friends with some of the folks from the Bahamas, including the chief meteorologist for the government owned TV station, ZNS-TV, Basil Dean.  A couple of times, Basil asked me to actually do the nightly weathercast on ZNS for him.  That's a lot different from what you're use to seeing.  Whereas, I will show roughly 18-20 graphics in about 3 to 3 ½ minutes, Basil gets 5 minutes and usually shows about 6 graphics. That's a lot of talking on each slide.

So, it is with more than passing interest that I look at what's going on in the Atlantic.  As I write this, Tropical Storm Hannah has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, and is about 230 miles east of the island of New Providence, in the Bahamas.  That's where Nassau, the capitol of the Bahamas is. So my friends in Nassau are getting some wind and rain.

However, it's Hurricane Ike, I'm worried about. Ike became a hurricane Wednesday afternoon, and by Thursday morning was a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph.  The current forecast cone takes Ike into the heart of the Bahamas by next Monday.  This could be disastrous for my Bahamian friends. While they are keenly aware of what hurricanes can do, building codes aren't what they are in south Florida, and the governmental infrastructure also is kind of loose.  Great people, wonderful country, don't get me wrong.  But...after all..it's a tropical island-country. A few years back, two hurricanes blew through the northern Bahamas and the town of Freeport was severely damaged, while the settlement of West End on Grand Bahama was virtually wiped out.  One hotel in Freeport has never reopened.

It remains to be seen what impact Ike will have on the U.S. if any. Hanna..while still a tropical storm at this time, looks like it's going to hit the southeast co, ast.  If I had Friday o, ff, I think I'd head for Wilmington, North Carolina and be sitting in the truck with all my video gear, computer, and weather eq, uipment, on Saturday morning.  We'll see.

Stay dry!

Lee


8-25-08

 

If you haven't read JC's blog about how people criticize those of us in the media, it would serve as a good read before continuing here.  It's true...we catch flack for just about anything, just because someone didn't like what tie we wear and they think they know better than we do what to wear.

Although I've been in broadcasting for decades, it never ceases to amaze me how some people think it's okay to criticize us & be rude just because we're in broadcasting.  I have my own theory on why some people do it, but I'll just leave that alone here.  I probably should have realized that we're open game, but I'll never forget the first time I was surprised by someone since coming to WAND.  It was my first Decatur Celebration and I was glad to be working in the company tent.  So up walks this woman who was about as wide as she was high, looks me up and down, and in her own style proceeds to tell me, "You're a lot fatter in real life."  Yup. True story.

There are some people in our business who do this so they get recognized, and others like myself who don't care about that as long as we can do our jobs and have the satisfaction of a job well done. But being recognized in public is a fact of life in the TV business.  I don't pay much attention any more, but my family has a "code phrase" to let me know when someone's staring.

It may sound fun for people to recognize you, but think about it...You can't go out to eat without people staring at your food & how you're eating.  I'll never forget...it was mid-June about 2003 and my family and I were all on vacation in Key West, Florida (our favorite spot to vacation.)  There we were one hot & sunny afternoon, having lunch in Sloppy Joe's Bar.  Yes, there were amber colored adult beverages in glasses on the table and my family was busily wallowing at the trough.  I'm sure I had sauce from the wings I was eating (Sloppy wings..mmmmmmmmmm) all over my face.  I suppose a cruise ship was in town because there were two older couples seated at a nearby table.  As they got up to leave, one of the ladies turned to me and said, "We're from Effingham, we watch you all the time. I bet you're surprised to be recognized so far from home." 

Actually...the Mrs. and I were in the line at Winn-Dixie (grocery) a couple of days before and the lady in front of me turned around and said she recognized me...she's from Chatham.

Good thing I was with the family...if you know what I mean.

I was walking through some airport..proba, bly Fort Lauderdale...and some lady w, alking toward me said, "Are you our weatherman?"  Yes, m'am..you passed your eye test today.

Sometimes it's fun. Other times, it's not.  I guess it depends on what's being said.  While it may be true I'm fatter in real life, it's not fun to hear it.  I've battled overweight almost all my life and have recently experienced a quick weight gain which I'm now working to lose.  I won't trouble you with the reason for the gain, but let's just say a family situation set us up for eating most meals out for a while because of a lack of time to shop & cook.

So, yeah...I'm back to having more junk in the trunk.  And it's a good thing that most of my suits look enough alike that on those occasions when I grab the wrong coat & it doesn't match the pants....you probably can't tell. Otherwise, JC's buddy from Champaign would likely send an e-mail criticizing my lack of taste. LOL.

And if you see me somewhere with some young hottie, she's either my daughter, or he's that guy who looks like me...it's not me, man...even if he does have extra junk in the trunk & a mismatched suit on.  :))

Lee 


8-13-08

See my blogification from 8-8 to give you background on my query regarding this date.  I even gave you some hints as to the significance.  If you don't care to bother to look it up, I even tossed out a clue...how does the importance of 8-8 relate to 10-10?  Further, I hinted that 10-10 is tied to sa.

This was just a "throwaway" pondering to see if anybody remembers what happened.  Although I've not heard from him, I'm sure Dr. Larry Klugman of Richland Community College would be able to immediately tie , it all together.  You see, he teaches political science.

The date 10-10 relates to Spiro T. Agnew's resignation as Vice President of the United States in 1973.  Less than a year later, on 8-8-74, President Richard M. Nixon resigned the presidency.

So how does all this relate to weather?  It doesn't.  My blogification is an opportunity for you to get a look into what's going on in my head.  I wondered of I was the only one to remember those dates...and of all the e-mails, I got some pretty wild guesses but nobody got a cigar.

"Sometimes, a cigar is just a cigar."
                          Sigmund Freud

And a good Cuban would be fun right about now...my personal physician, Dr. Fatfingers, says I should stay away from them.

Lee 


 8-11-08

Out of all the e-mails I got over the weekend (yes, I check my e-mail on the weekend, too,) nobody seems to know the significance of 8/8, as associated with 10/10.  I'll give you a couple of days...don't Google.  Honest answers only, please.  If you need a hint, think logic.... 10/10 is to sa, as 8/8 is to ?? okay?

Have you had a chance to catch the Olympics in high definition?  OH MAMA!  Watching the 4X100 freestyle relay was breathtaking.  I've been to air shows and a goat roping, but I've never seen anything quite like the Olympics in HD.  Sha-aam.

Hey, nice week, huh? It's supposed to be hot & muggy for fair week...but this is great.

And the Cubs took 2 of 3 over the weekend.  Keep on rollin' big mo.

Sadly, singer-songwriter Isaac Hayes died over the weekend. He was found in his Memphis home, collapsed next to his treadmill.  Yet another reason to avoid exercise.

Lee

 


 

8-8-08

Other than the fact that it's Friday, and the Olympics begin today, what else is significant about 8/8?  Buehler? Buehler?  Anyone?  Do I need to hint with 3 initials?  Let me hint that there was an association with an event on 10/10. 

I see JC & Jeff have gotten into the Cubs-Cards rivalry on their blogs. Boys, boys. Let's try to maintain a bit of decorum.  Besides, why argue about these things?  Especially when one team sits atop the league and the other is (as of this afternoon) 7 games back in the division.

Now...this is what we call a "tease" in our biz.  I'm having trouble keeping quiet about something and it's almost more than I can handle.  Just wait...oh boy, oh boy!!!  New toys are wonderful.  I can't wait until I can talk about it.  It's driving me crazy (short drive.)

Doggie update:  Sophie's back to almost normal (she never really was what we'd call normal,) and bounding around the house.  NOW, Oscar seems to be favoring his back.  Sorry, bud, we spent the budget on Soph.  But thank you to all who've asked about her.

, ,

Gonna be a great weekend...especially nice for the first weekend of the State Fair.  Lots of things to do & see.  The Governor actually showed up.  Could he be thinking of moving the fair to Chicago?  I wonder if there's enough room on Northerly Island, spilling into Grant Park.  Wouldn't that be fun?  Swine judging just the other side of Buckingham Fountain.

Tongue parked firmly in my central Illinois cheek.

Y'all have a good weekend.

Lee

 


 

 7-18-08

Well, it's been a very nice week.  Although, it's become hot & muggy...but you expect that in central Illinois in the summertime.  Hazy, Crazy days of Summer!

Since Greg broke ground mentioning our friend who works for our competitor in Champaign, I would be remiss if I did not make mention of my friend Robert Reese.  Robert's battliing eosphogeal cancer.  He used to work here, and went to the competition probably 11 years ago, but we still remain good friends. 

Although we don't see each other face-to-face very often because of the geographic distance challenge, he and I do talk on the phone frequently.  Robert is a close enough friend that when my son was married in June of 2007, Robert and his wife came to the wedding and reception.  He and I attend some of the same conferences and when there's airline travel, usually try to get booked on the same flights with adjoining seats.  He's a good friend.

My life has been a bit more hectic than usual this last week and I haven't talked to him for a few days, but when we spoke he was going in for a radiation treatment.  He has been undergoing chemotherapy and now they're adding radiation.  Without going into it in depth, let me just say that he received a report about a week ago which was quite encouraging.  Very good news, indeed.  Press on, Robert!

Now...a different front.  I guess if Greg can tell his "mole" story, I can rant about one of my pet peeves.  What became of the words, "You're welcome"?  In, c, reasingly, I'm hearing people answer a, "Thank you," with the words, "No problem."  The Mrs. and I were out for pizza and an adult beverage last Sunday and I listened to the waitress constanly say, "No problem," to anyone who thanked her.  As she continued, my eyes bulged out of my head, steam started rolling out of my collar, and my wife laughed and laughed at me because of my pet peeve.

When settling up the bill and she said, "Thank you, guys," (guys??? My wife's NO guy!) I was tempted (but resisted) to say....NO PROBLEM.

Let's hope for a great weekend across central Illinois....and that we have: NO PROBLEM!

LOL

Lee 


 7-7-08

First...No, we won't be going with a percentage of probability (POP) of precipitation.  We prefer to use the more easily understood, chance...slight chance...likely.

A percentage means simply, given the meteorological conditions of the forecast, that percent of the time there will be precip somewhere in the forecast area.  Meteorologist/Educator Jeff Haby explains it like this:

POP is the probability of any particular point location within a forecast area receiving measurable precipitation, in a given time period. POP is determined by two parameters: The probability that any precipitation will occur in forecast area AND predicted areal coverage of precipitation if precipitation does occur. Thus, areal coverage is just one aspect of POP. The chance that any measurable precipitation will occur in the first place within the forecast area must also be considered. When referring to POP it is most accurate to say, "There is a ___% POP that any particular measurement station in the viewing area will get precipitation". For example, when averaged over many 30% POP days, a particular station should have precipitation 30% of the time if the forecaster or computer model is accurate.

Suppose during the course of a year that a Dallas measurement station has a 30% POP on 100 individual days. If the POP prediction is fairly accurate over the long term, it should have precipitated at the Dallas station on about 30 of those days. Thus, think of POP in terms of a long term average prediction. All to often, people assume a 20% chance of rain means 20% of forecast area will get rain on that one day. This is often not the case for any one day. Often no precipitation occurs at all in the forecast area on days with a 20% POP since one component of POP is the chance that any precipitation will develop.

So there you have it.  Now...Tuesday's starting to look like there's a pretty good likelihood of strong storms (was that 50%? or 70? chance???) especially by afternoon.  Keep an eye on Live Doppler 4X.

Lee

 

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