J.C.'s Blog: November 2011

Rain, Wind, Snow, and Sleet across the area today. This is a reminder that meteorological winter arrives on Thursday. The rain/snow is now pushing into Indiana and is gone for the night! The sky has started to clear with some sunshine being reported in Springfield and Jacksonville. This trend will continue for the rest of the night and with the clear sky after midnight temps will tumble into the l...ower 20's. Sunshine will be the main weather story for Wednesday and Thursday before a weak front will drop temps into the 30's for highs again on Friday. A storm system is on track to make it here for the weekend bring rain back into the CI for Saturday afternoon and into Sunday morning. I am watching the temperature profiles closely to see if it will get cold enough to support any snow by Sunday afternoon. Stay tuned but that system will bring in the coldest reading of the season so far with highs on Tuesday barley making it into the 30's.


Hello Wednesday and for some of us it's a Friday. If you are planning on being on the roads this evening make sure you give yourself a little extra time as some fog will develop. Temperatures over night will stay in the upper 30's to around 40. Thanksgiving still looks sunny for our western counties with some early morning fog. Once the fog burns off sunshine will help to pop temperatures into the upper 50's in the east and lower 60's in the west. We should see a few stratus clouds in east central Illinois tomorrow very similar to what we saw this afternoon. Shopper Friday's forecast looks awesome as highs will make it into the 60's area wide. Showers will return for the day Saturday and as temperatures drop on Sunday we might see a few snow flurries but no accumulation is expected. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!


Showers will continue to come to an end over the next several hours. Rainfall totals have ranged from a little more then .5" to 1" across much of the area. We need to watch for clearing in the west because if the sky clears some fog could develop thanks to the moisture from today's rains. Sky will clear tomorrow with highs into the 50's then Thanksgiving and Friday for shoppers looks amazing with highs climbing into the low 60's. Rain chances return as another storm system will develop and push in for the weekend. Temps will start mild on Saturday, then slide into the low 40's Sunday into Monday. The low will become cut-off and retro-grade or move from east to west keeping our shower chances going into Monday and even into the first part of the day on Tuesday. If enough moisture is left over Tuesday cold temps settle in and we could see a few wet snowflakes mix in. I will be watching this system closely because any deviation in the track of the low could change the forecast.


Here are some Thanksgiving Day statistics for Springfield….



Normal High & Low Temperature Nov 25:  47 & 30 degrees 

Warmest Thanksgiving Day:  67 degrees on Nov 25 1915, Nov 24 1966 & Nov 22 1973 

Coldest Thanksgiving Morning:  0 degrees on Nov 23, 1950

Coldest Thanksgiving Daytime High Temperature:  22 degrees on Nov 24, 1881 & Nov 27 1930  

Warmest Thanksgiving Nighttime Low Temperature:  57 degrees on Nov 26, 1896 

Wettest Thanksgiving Day: 1.47 inches on Nov 28, 1968 (daily average precipitation 0.11 inches) 

Snowiest Thanksgiving Day: 2.4 inches of snow on Nov 27 1980 (daily average snow 0.1 inches)

Whitest Thanksgiving Day:  6 inches of snow on the ground on Nov 27, 1975

Frequency of Precipitation Thanksgiving Day:  48 of 132 years (36%) measured precipitation

Frequency of Snow on Ground:  5 out of 110 years (4.5%) 1 inch or more snow depth

Frequency of Cold & Mild Thanksgiving Days:  43 of 132 years (33%) low below 20F
44 of 132 years (33%) high 50F or warmer

High Temperatures on Thanksgiving...
Highs 20-29F... 13 days (9.8%)
Highs 30-39F... 31 days (23%)
Highs 40-49F... 44 days (33%)
Highs 50-59F... 24 days (18%)
Highs 60-69F... 20 days (15%)

Low Temperatures on Thanksgiving...
Lows 0-9F.....  2 days (1.5%)
Lows 10-19F... 19 days  (14%)
Lows 20-29F... 40 days  (30%)
Lows 30-39F... 56 days  (42%)
Lows 40-49F... 11 days (8.3%)
Lows 50-59F...  4 days   (3%)

Precipitation on Thanksgiving...

Dry............... 62 days  (47%)
Trace............. 22 days  (17%)
0.01-0.10 inches...30 days  (23%)
0.11-0.25 inches... 8 days (6.1%)
0.26-0.50 inches... 5 days (3.8%)
0.51-0.75 inches... 4 days   (3%)
0.76-1.00 inches... 0 days   (0%)
1.01-1.25 inches... 0 days   (0%)
1.26-1.50 inches... 1 day  (0.8%)
1.51+ inches....... 0 days   (0%)
Snowfall on Thanksgiving...
No Snow...........103 days  (79%)
Trace............. 15 days  (12%)
0.1-0.4 inches....  7 days (5.4%)
0.5-0.9 inches....  3 days (2.3%)
1-1.9 inches....... 1 day  (0.8%)
2-2.9 inches....... 1 day  (0.8%)

Snow Depth on Thanksgiving...

No Snow........... 88 days  (80%)
Trace............. 17 days  (15%)
1 inch............  3 days (2.7%)
2 inches..........  0 days   (0%)
3 inches........... 0 days   (0%)
4 inches........... 1 day  (0.9%)
5 inches........... 0 days   (0%)
6 inches........... 1 day  (0.9%)



Specific weather data follows.  These were measured in downtown Springfield from 1879 to 1947, and at Capital Airport from 1948 to the present.




Happy Monday everyone! We are off to a cloudy and drizzle filled start and more rain is expected to move in after midnight. A low is deepening across Texas today and will continue to push into the Ohio Valley overnight. The low is going to take a little further track to the south keeping the heaviest rains across southern Illinois. I expect to see around .5" to .75" across the area with the heaviest along and south of I-70. We can't rule out a rumble of thunder the further to the south you live in the CI. Thanksgiving Day looks amazing as sunshine will be the rule with highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's! Looking out further a system will bring us a chance for some showers Sat, Sun and Monday but cool temps arrive on Monday as a low gets cut-off and hangs around. Monday shows temps cooling through the atmosphere a mix of rain/snow but no accumulations as of now.

Wind Chill
With the temps dropping in the area and the wind picking up we start talking about the wind chill or feels like temp. Here is a chart to see how cold the air feels to our bare skin before you venture out to work or school. These areas in the chart show how long it takes before frost bite sets in.


Winter weather preparedness week continues and today's topic is definitions. We through these terms at you on television all the time but you might not know what they mean. Listed below are the criteria that are met for one of these winter watches, warnings, or advisories to be issues.



       Winter Watches: Severe winter weather is possible in the next 1 to 3 days. We are still tracking the storm, and the impacts could change, so keep up with the latest information - especially if you have travel plans.  

       Winter Advisories: Winter weather the next day or so - such as snow, sleet, icing (freezing rain), gusty winds and/or cold temperatures will result mainly in travel problems / delays. If you plan on spending time outdoors, be prepared to stay as dry and warm as possible.

Advisories for snow are issued for 2 to 5 inches. Advisories for ice are for icing less than 1/4" thick.   

       Winter Warnings: A Winter storm the next day or so - is expected to result in signficant amounts of snow, sleet, icing, very gusty winds and/or extremely cold temperatures. The impacts will be significant with hazardous travel and possibly extended power outages. Getting stranded outdoors could be deadly.

Warnings for snow are for 6 inches or more. Warnings for icing are for more than 1/4" thick, which can cause damage to trees and power lines.

Once again you can log onto www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx to see more information about winter weather preparedness.





Winter Preparedness Week

I know it's hard to think about winter on a day where we saw severe storms roll across the area. It's November and that means old man winter will be here before we know it. We have already seen a few snowflakes in some parts of the area but it's always good to go back over some of the precautions we should take before winter throws us a big punch. All this week I am going to focus on winter weather here on my blog and I know it's been a while since I have written here. Today's topic is average snowfall for the winter months across Illinois. Here is a map that shows the average snowfall for these points. Here is a list of what some of the cities across our area average.

Champaign 23.5"

Paris 23.5"

Springfield 20.9"

Lincoln 20.5"

Decatur 16"

Effingham 15.2"

Just remember some years we see more and other years less.


Here is a map that shows how many days on average we see with freezing rain. Notice the corridor between I-72 and I-74. That area, which includes Decatur, Springfield and Champaign on average, sees the highest number of days with freezing rain.



The final map shows how many days on average we see a 6+ inch snowfall across that state. As expected the highest numbers are across northern Illinois.




Just a little food for thought this evening and if you get a chance you can find more information by going to the National Weather Service page at www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx.



I found this stat today on the National Weather Service page today and thought it was interesting. I just read a book The Children's Blizzard, about the blizzard that struck the northern plains back at the time when foreign settlers where looking to start their lives in the land of opportunity. It touched on the signal core and its role in issuing cold weather warning.


The first systematized and synchronous weather observations were taken at 24 stations across the U.S. at 7:35 am. These observations were transmitted via telegraph to Washington DC for plotting on a national weather map. The Army Signal Service was assigned the responsibility for taking these observations.

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