Updated
IHSA Week One Playoff Pairings Released
Below
are the pairings for central Illinois teams -- in our coverage area --
for week 1 of the playoffs. For the pairings for the rest of the teams
in the state, including brackets that will show you potential matchups
down the road,
click here. "Bracket 1" is the "top half" of each classification's bracket, and "Bracket 2" are the teams in the bottom half.
Good luck teams!
1A PAIRINGS
Bracket 2:
#16 Brown County (5-4) @ #1 LeRoy (9-0) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 2pm
#12 Milford (6-3) @ #5 Central A&M (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 2pm
#15 Dupo (6-3) @ #2 Maroa-Forsyth (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 2pm
#10 Winchester-West Central (6-3) @ #7 Villa Grove (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 2pm
#14 Cumberland (6-3) @ #3 Carrollton (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 1pm
#11 Oblong (6-3) @ #6 Salt Fork (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 1pm
2A PAIRINGS
Bracket 1:
#7 Havana (6-3) @ #2 Tri-Valley (8-1) -- Fri., Oct. 26, 7pm
#6 Watseka (6-3) @ #3 Annawan-Wethersfield (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 2pm
Bracket 2:
#16 Ridge Farm (6-3) @ #1 Bismarck-Henning (9-0) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 1pm
#13 Argenta-Oreana (6-3) @ #4 Camp Point-Central (9-0) -- Sat., Oct 27, 2pm
#12 Lawrenceville (7-2) @ #5 Cerro Gordo-Bement Coop (9-0) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 2pm
#10 Athens (7-2) @ #7 Beardstown (8-1) -- Fri., Oct. 26, 7pm
#14 Carmi-White County) (6-3) @ #3 Casey-Westfield (9-0) -- Sat., Oct 27, 2pm
#11 Arthur-Lovington (7-2) @ #6 Carlinville (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 1pm
3A PAIRINGS
Bracket 1:
#16 Champaign-St. Thomas More (5-4) @ #1 Elmwood-Brimfield (9-0) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 3pm
#14 Aurora-Central Catholic (6-3) @ #3 St. Joseph-Ogden (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 5pm
Bracket 2:
#8 North Mac (5-4) @ #1 Williamsville (9-0) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 1pm
#5 Monticello (7-2) @ #4 Nokomis (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 2pm
#7 Pana (5-4) @ #2 Tolono-Unity (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 1pm
#6 Auburn (6-3) @ #3 Pleasant Plains (8-1) -- Fri., Oct. 26, 7pm
4A PAIRINGS
Bracket 2:
#7 Mahomet-Seymour (6-3) @ #2 Rochester (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 6pm
#6 Bloomington-Central Catholic (6-3) at #3 Charleston (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27 2pm
5A PAIRINGS
Bracket 2:
#6 East Peoria (7-2) at #3 Urbana (8-1) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 7pm
#8 Mattoon (5-4) at #1 Jerseyville-Jersey (9-0) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 2pm
#5 Marion (7-2) at #4 Chatham-Glenwood (7-2) -- Sat., Oct. 27, 2pm
#7 Jacksonville (5-4) at #2 Centralia (9-0) --Sat., Oct. 27, 2pm
#6 Highland (5-4) at #3 Sacred Heart-Griffin (8-1) -- Fri., Oct. 26, 7pm
6A PAIRINGS
Bracket 2:
#8 Springfield HS (5-4) at #1 Crete-Monee (9-0) -- Sat., Oct. 26, 6pm
10-17-12
By the Numbers: What's Wrong With Illinois Football?
A
bye week gives us a lot of time for reflection, but as I said
immediately following Illinois' 45-0 loss at Michigan, it lets the sting
of a bad loss hang around a week longer. We spent a lot of time on our
newscasts, and on Inside the Illini talking about the issues of the
week. From what we've seen, there are a lot of them.
I'm
an admitted stat geek, and I love looking at numbers to try and
diagnose a team based on them. Seven games into a season is a more than
sufficient sample size, and today I'm going to look at how the Illini
compare to last year's 6-6 team, based on full-season projections. I
also buy into the "eyeball test", and will elaborate on some of these
comparisons with observations from the first seven games of the year.
It
probably won't surprise people, but the numbers this year are much
worse than last year, in just about every category. In the only stat
that really matters -- wins and losses -- the Illini are far behind the
2011 team that, we haven't forgotten, lost its last 6 regular season
games. Another thing to keep in mind with these projections: The seven
game sample size includes three home games against teams from the MAC,
the WAC, and an FCS team that came in on a 14-game losing streak, so
strength-of-schedule would suggest that these projections will actually
go down based on the quality of their opponents.
For now, we're just going by the numbers, and we'll try to figure out where the 2012 team has gone wrong.
Total Offense (yards per game)
2011: 355.7 (9th in Big Ten)
2012 Projection: 309.6 (12th in Big Ten)
Points Per Game
2011: 22.6 (5th in Big Ten)
2012 Projection: 18.1 (11th in Big Ten)
Injuries,
including the 2-and-a-half game benching of Nathan Scheelhaase (ankle),
haven't helped these numbers. The Illini have had trouble moving the
ball, particularly in the ground game, and losing their starting QB for
10 quarters hasn't helped the passing attack. The drop in both numbers
is pretty significant, but more so when it comes to points. These
numbers suggest that, while the Illini are having trouble gaining
yardage, they're having even more trouble turning their yards into
points. A big reason for that is their inefficiency in the red zone.
Red Zone Scoring
2011: 83.7% (7th in Big Ten)
2012 Projection: 68.4% (12th in Big Ten)
That
percentage is awful. Even the 2011 Indiana team, which was 0-8 in the
Big Ten last season, had their red zone efficiency up over 75%. What
makes the percentage even worse, the Illini have reached the red zone
just 19 times in 7 games, which is the fewest in the conference.
They're giving themselves fewer chances to scores, and failing to
score at a higher rate than any other team in the league. That's a bad
formula. I suspect that has something to do with the inability to
"punch one in", a staple in the Big Ten.
Rushing Offense (ypg)
2011: 171.7 (6th in Big Ten)
2012 Projection: 123.4 (12th in Big Ten)
For
the second year in a row, the Illini lack a go-to threat in the
backfield. Donovonn Young (276) and Josh Ferguson (210) are both over
200 yards, and Scheelhaase follows with 129. Again, Scheelhaase has
been hurting, and the game again Wisconsin in week 6 was really the
first time he was unleashed with his legs for a full 60 minutes. He
gained 84 yards that day, and if that keeps up, these numbers will
improve. Even so, as a whole, the lack of production on the ground has
been the biggest problem. As a group, the Illini ran for 2,232 yards last year. Right now, they're on pace for 1,481. The lack of production on the ground is a likely culprit for a 3rd down conversion rate of 34.0% (11th). Last year, they were at 42.3% (T-4th)
Passing Offense (ypg)
2011: 184.0 (7th in the B1G)
2012 Projection: 186.2 (10th in the B1G)
This
is one of the few numbers that have improved for the Illini since last
year. The lack of a ground game has forced the hand of Illinois' air
attack more often, and so far, it's proved to be a bit more efficient in
2012. The numbers are down a bit for Scheelhaase, but with more time
given to backup Reilly O'Toole, the group is more efficient than last
year. The problem is, so is everyone else. The Big Ten had 4 teams
that passed for more than 200 yards a game last year -- this year there
are 6, the best of which is Indiana at 313 ypg. So, despite an
improvement in Champaign, the Illini are still falling behind the rest
of the league passing the ball.
Total Defense (ypg)
2011: 286.2 (2nd in Big Ten)
2012 Projection: 376.4 (8th in the Big Ten)
Scoring Defense (Points allowed per game)
2011: 19.6 (5th in Big Ten)
2012 Projection: 30.7 (11th in Big Ten)
The splits here are far worse than the ones on offense. The Illini have given up an average of 90 more
yards per game -- roughly enough for an extra touchdown and field goal
-- and notice they've given up about 11 more points per game. Again,
keep in mind that these projections include a 24-7 win over
Western Michigan, and a 44-0 win over Charleston Southern. Four of
their last five games come against teams with scoring offenses in the
top half of the conference rankings, so if the Illini don't turn things
around on defense, these numbers will look much worse in December. Now
let's break it down between passing and rushing.
Pass Defense (ypg)
2011: 162.3 (1st in Big Ten)
2012 Projection: 219.3 (9th in Big Ten)
Again,
the Big Ten has proven itself to be a much better passing league this
year, and these numbers are really hurt by the "big play." Against
Michigan, they gave up a 71 yard touchdown pass. Against Wisconsin,
they gave up passing TDs of 62 and 59 yards. The problems have been
attributed to lack of depth, youth, injuries, and even miscommunication
from the sidelines.
Rush Defense (ypg)
2011: 123.8 (2nd in Big Ten)
2012 Projection: 157.1 (9th in Big Ten)
These
numbers have grown the last couple of weeks, in large part because
they've faced Wisconsin's Montee Ball, and Michigan's Denard Robinson.
The Illini aren't getting as much pressure on opposing teams, dropping
from 2nd to 9th in the league in QB sacks.
So,
where do the Illini need to improve? Well, when coach Tim Beckman says
"everywhere," he's not kidding. I mentioned 12 statistical categories,
and in each one of them, the Illini have fallen behind the rest of the
league. Just seven games into his tenure, many fans have naturally
directed their frustration toward coaching, already questioning the
effectiveness of Beckman and his staff. For me, there are enough issues on the field that I'm going to reserve judgement about what's coming from the sidelines for awhile longer.
The
thought of a bowl appearance seems to have already slipped away, as
Illinois would have to finish 4-1 in the Big Ten to qualify --
the remaining schedule includes three home games against Indiana,
Minnesota, and Purdue, and away games at Ohio State and Northwestern.
If the aforementioned numbers hold true, they'll be lucky to go 2-3 in
that stretch. That's a 4-8 overall record.
If
the Illini can figure things out, and perhaps steal away one of those
road games, who knows. The optimism in Champaign-Urbana is already
gone, and expectations have undoubtedly dropped.
As it is, this season looks like it will be over in November.
10-10-12
Argenta-Oreana Kicked Out of Conference The Helped Create
Once
again, it was a day full of conference realignment. Since it was too
much to fit in a limited sportscast - at least too short make it
understandable - I'd thought I'd clear a few things up on the blog.
A
brief background: On Oct. 2, after months of closed door meetings,
expansion proposals, and behind-the-scenes schemes to realign the Okaw
Valley Conference, nine schools agreed to move away from the Okaw, and
form their own league. Pending IHSA approval (which is still pending),
they planned to call it the Central Illinois Conference, set to include:
Argenta-Oreana, Meridian, Central A&M, Clinton, St. Teresa,
Shelbyville, Sullivan-Okaw Valley, Warrensburg-Latham, and Tuscola.
The change left Maroa-Forsyth, Unity, and Monticello to fend for themselves. I'll have more on that in a bit.
Just
when it seemed like the dust had settled on a convoluted situation, the
CIC managed to kick up some more. Wednesday (Oct. 10), long before the
conference will even exist, they've already booted one of their charter
members. Argenta-Oreana is now on its own, after a meeting where the
eight other members, in a majority, voted to oust the Bombers from the
new conference.
It's interesting because Sean
German, A-O's principal, has actually been a key contact point for this
realignment news since it began. He was the spokesman for these teams
as they made the transition into the new league, and now he won't even
be in it. Before I try to explain why, I should make clear that A-O
isn't left without an option. I'll also get to that in a bit.
I spoke with German Wednesday night. Here was his explanation for the CIC's decision:
When
the Okaw Valley was first rumored to split, it was no secret that the
Little Okaw Valley Conference sent out an invitation to each team to
come to an informational meeting, listening to the concept of LOVC
expansion. The only school to attend was Argenta-Oreana, and clearly
the LOVC's idea peaked their interests.
For some
time, A-O administrators weighed their options, and saw two choices
that could work for them: Form their own conference with the 8 other
Okaw schools, or join the LOVC. German said, as time went on, the LOVC
seemed to make more sense. He said he expressed that opinion to both
conferences.
Now we get to Wednesday, and a scheduled meeting for the CIC,
"We
were trying to be open and up front with them," said German. "We told
them, if it's the consensus of the group that they continue scheduling
without us, feel free."
It didn't take long.
Later in the meeting, the remaining CIC members voted them out. The
sense I got from German that he didn't expect that, or at least not that
quickly.
Luckily for Argenta-Oreana, their
backup plan - joining the LOVC - is still a viable option. German said
the conversations remain positive, but they won't count on it until an
official invitation is in hand.
Unity, Monticello Still Looking for a Place to Play
The
Bombers weren't the only ones to receive some bad conference
realignment news today. The Okaw split obviously left a few schools
without conferences. Maroa-Forsyth, Unity, and Monticello have been
pursuing their options since the summer. Last week, Monticello and
Unity applied to join the Sangamon Valley Conference. Wednesday, the
SVC met to consider the applications of those two, along with Dwight
HS. Each were denied.
Following the meeting,
SVC spokesman John Overstreet said, "The main reasons were travel
distances (especially in sports other than football) and possible IHSA
proposals that might deal with football scheduling.
"At
this time the SVC will stay at it current 8 schools, 7 playing
football, and work with the (Heart of Illinois
Conference) and (Vermilion Valley Conference) to fill non conference
games."
When I sought reaction,
Monticello Principal Tip Reedy replied: "At this time we have not
received formal confirmation from the SVC. We will continue to seek
options that are in the best interest of our students."
He finished the email with, "Thanks for letting me know."
We've
had no response from Maroa-Forsyth, whose only geographic fit is the
new CIC, but they've made clear, the Trojans aren't welcome.
More to come, I'm sure...
