CHICAGO (WAND) - Governor JB Pritzker said COVID-19 cases are now expected to peak in mid-June in Illinois.
Gov. Pritzker's office said previous models forecasted, predicted a peak between late April and early May, that timeframe of plateauing near a peak has been expanded from mid-May into mid-June for the state. Pritzker said the updated models are based on the daily death toll and hospital capacity data from the past two weeks.
The later and lower peak is a good indicator of flattening the curve and a slow down of the state's transmission rate, according to Pritzker.
"Under current mitigations, hospital bed and ventilator capacity remains sufficient to treat COVID-19 patients. In other words, Illinois will reach the peak without overloading the state’s health care system as seen in other parts of the world," said a release from Pritzker's office.
The state’s modeling efforts are led by top researchers from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Northwestern School of Medicine, the University of Chicago, the Chicago and Illinois Departments of Public Health (IDPH), and managed by Civis Analytics, using IDPH’s data of COVID-19 cases, deaths, hospitalizations, ventilator and ICU usage from hospitals in Illinois.
In regional metrics all four of the regions are meeting many of the key metrics. Three of the four regions are on track to meet all of the Restore Illinois reopening plan for moving to the next phase after the 28-day period. Those regions include, north-central, central and southern.
Below are where each region is currently:
- As of midnight, May 8, the Northeast region’s positivity rate is at 22.3 percent, higher than the 20 percent cap on this metric to move into the next phase. The North-Central region is at 9.1 percent, the Central region at 6.0 percent, and the Southern region at 10.5 percent.
- All of the regions have seen a dip in hospitalizations since May 1st: 18.6 percent decrease in the Northeast region, 35.8 percent decrease in the North-Central region, 44.4 percent decrease in the Central region, and 54.3 percent decrease in the Southern region.
- A requirement to move forward to next phase is that a region sees no overall increase, rather stability or a decrease, in hospital admissions for COVID-like illness across a 28-day period.
- As of midnight May 8, all four regions met the third requirement of available surge capacity of at least 14 percent for ICU beds, medical/surgical beds, and ventilators.