The math behind crafting a perfect bracket

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (WAND) - The madness is nearly upon us, with the NCAA tournament set to tip off officially Thursday.

You're probably putting together a bracket trying to find the perfect set of teams to beat your friends, win your office pool, maybe even put together a perfect bracket.

Not so fast.

"There's over 9 quintillion possible combinations," said University of Illinois Professor Sheldon Jacobson who also runs his own bracket analytics website.

UIUC Professor Emeritus in the Department of Mathematics John D'Angelo chimed in, saying, "Your odds are not very good."

Professor Jacobson says his research has found a strategy to picking at least a "good" bracket.

"You don't want to put too many upsets because those teams ultimately will lose out," Jacobson said. "That's why building a bracket in reverse is so helpful because then you know who you want in your final four. Then build your bracket from there. You'll find that even when you do put in some upsets, they will not hurt your bracket."

Build your Final Four first and then fill out the rest of the games in between.

Illinois heads into the big dance as a 6-seed. Their chances of making a run are better than you might think.

"They have to win the first game, which, let's give them 60% chance of doing that," D'Angelo said. "That gets them to [the round of] 32. By this stage, it's a 50% chance. You have a 50% chance to reach the [Sweet] 16, another one-half to reach the [Elite] 8, another one-half to reach the Final Four. So this is 3 over 40."

That comes out to about a 7.5% chance of getting to the Final Four, although Professor D'Angelo said the odds of winning games in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight are probably worse than 50%.

To win the National Championship, D'Angelo estimated it's less than a 2% chance.

The mathematician said, "Since 1985, there have been 39 NCAA men's tournaments. 1 seeds have won 25 times. 6 seeds [have won] one."

That one was Kansas in 1988.

Now, 11-seeds are beating 6-seeds more frequently, too.

"In the last 13 tournaments, the 11s have outperformed the 6s," Jacobson said. "They're winning more often. That is the vulnerable line in the first round."

Brackets will close Thursday the 20th at 11:15 a.m.

To take a look at Professor Jacobson's website 'BracketOdds,' click here.