Coronavirus

(WAND) - The decision to relax social distancing restrictions has many leaders in the U.S. wondering when to make the switch. 

For Illinois the predicted date for reopening looks a little different than Governor JB Pritzker's estimate of May 30, according to one model. 

The date predicted by modelers from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said Illinois could reopen on May 19.

However, Epidemiologists have warned against moving too fast as the coronavirus is still circulating. Cases could spiral all over again if measures are ended too soon, health officials have warned. 

Some states say they shouldn't reopen until there is a better way to test people to see who is infected, better ways to trace and isolating and quarantining is needed. 

A team of disease modelers from IHME have come up with a different measure for reopening. 

They are asking the question: What is the maximum number of new infections that states could handle with their current testing and contact tracing capacity?

According to NPR their answer is one new infection per million people in a given state. They estimate that states with this level of transmission should be able to keep outbreaks from flaring up even after people start mingling again, though the researchers stress that states would still need to limit large gatherings.

IHME's team built a model to forecast when each state will reach that threshold of 1 new infection per million. Their main finding is that very few states are close.

However, the models have several caveats, including their model is just one of many created to map the progression of COVID-19. Some other models give a less positive projection. Modelers say these predictions should be a useful tool to guide leaders on their response strategies and they should not be taken as literal predictions of the future. 

By May 10 only five states would be ready for a relax on social distancing. Those include, Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, West Virginia and Vermont. 

Illinois' date for reopen could be May 19, along with Delaware and Alabama. For the full list, click here.Â